This simple analysis helps to illustrate the benefits - in terms of deaths and serious injuries prevented and economic savings - that could be achieved over 20 years by improving just 10% of each country's roads. The analysis supports the case for including road safety in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), which are currently being created.
|Country income category:||Low||Lower middle||Upper middle||High||All|
|Number of countries||33||49||47||49||178|
(per 100,000 pop)
|Annual fatalities and serious injuries (FSI)||1,408,000||5,434,000||5,599,000||1,034,000||13,640,000|
|Annual cost of FSI||$20 billion
(5% of GDP)
(5% of GDP)
(5% of GDP)
(2% of GDP)
(3% of GDP)
|What could be achieved|
|Improve 10% of roads||108,000 km||610,000 km||992,000 km||1,546,000 km||3,255,000 km|
|Build viable countermeasures||$8 billion||$61 billion||$149 billion||$464 billion||$681 billion|
|Reduction in fatalities||384,000||1,483,000||1,528,000||283,000||3,678,000|
|Reduction in fatalities and serious injuries||4,224,000||16,313,000||16,808,000||3,113,000||40,458,000|
|Economic benefit||$83 billion||$663 billion||$2,766 billion||$2,202 billion||$5,715 billion|
|Benefit cost ratio||11||11||19||5||8|
Assumptions, notes and references
* Data for some countries is not available. This explains why the total number of deaths is less than the WHO's worldwide estimate.
Analysis in US dollars.
Estimated number of road traffic deaths (point estimate) in 2010, WHO (2013) Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013.
Annual fatalities and serious injuries:
It was assumed that 10 serious injuries occur for each death. McMahon, K. and Dahdah, S. (2008) The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing Life and the Cost of a Serious Injury.
Annual cost of FSI:
This is the estimated cost of fatalities and serious injuries. It was assumed that a road fatality costs 70 x GDP per capita and that a serious injury costs one quarter of a fatality. The exception to this is for low income countries, where the cost of a fatality was 100 x GDP per capita. McMahon, K. and Dahdah, S. (2008) The True Cost of Road Crashes: Valuing Life and the Cost of a Serious Injury; International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Database.
Improve 10% of roads:
The majority of serious crashes occur on a small proportion of the world's roads. See for example: RSF (2009) Measuring and Mapping the Safety of Britain's Motorways and A Roads; and OECD (2008) Towards Zero, Ambitious Road Safety Targets and the Safe System Approach. For this analysis, it was assumed that half of a nation’s fatalities occur on 10% of its roads. Total road lengths were obtained from: CIA World Factbook.
Build viable countermeasures:
It was assumed that road improvements would cost: $300,000 per km in high-income countries, $150,000 per km in upper-middle income countries, $100,000 per km in lower-middle income countries and $70,000 per km in low-income countries. These costs are based on data gathered by iRAP during assessments of more than 300,000km of road.
Reduction in fatalities (and serious injuries):
Reductions are over 20 years. It was assumed that safety improvements would reduce fatalities and serious injuries by 30%. This is based on aggregate analysis of iRAP assessments that identify economically viable countermeasures (those with a benefit cost ratio greater than 1). iRAP Road Attribute Factsheets describe the risk factors used in the iRAP models.
The present value of fatalities and serious injuries prevented over 20 years. The discount rate used was 4%.
Benefit cost ratio:
The present value of the economic benefit divided by the present value of the cost to improve roads. It is noted that in five countries (Estonia, Iceland, Kiribati, Marshall Islands and San Marino) the analysis led to benefit cost ratios of less than 1. Nevertheless, in these countries there are still numerous high-return countermeasure options available.